May 2013 Grain Comments by Doug Biswell
Hey it is May and with spring comes weather markets in North America. It took a while but late planting corn in particular has grabbed the attention of traders. Cool and wet- sometimes - cold and snowy April weather is supportive to corn and wheat. By the time you are reading this most of the damage on the western Kansas wheat crop will have been assessed by the participants of the annual Kansas Wheat Quality Tour, so we will have a much better feel for the prospects for this year's crop. I have seen information from several sources that Southwest Kansas wheat is bad, not only because of cold temps but also the drought continues and they have had insect problems. Western Texas and Oklahoma are also in bad shape. We will see how high we go. A share of the ability of wheat to rally is going to be based on how high corn goes. The United States farmer will get a crop planted and this summer's weather is going to determine the size of the crop. What is happening now may affect the final yield some but the majority of the bushels per acre will be determined by the weather after the crop is in the ground. Soybeans, I think, have more factors weighing on how high they may go. With the cool wet weather up north some spring wheat acres may go to beans. Same for some corn acres being switched. Plus the fact that South America did grow a good sized crop and with the basis on beans doing what is it - setting high water marks for this time of the year - I would be shocked if we don't import a substantial amount of beans from South America, so don't be too much in love with your old crop beans. As always if you have any questions or comments please give me a call and thanks for your continued business.